Crypto MacroScore Calculator
See how interest rates, dollar strength, and liquidity conditions affect your crypto exposure — in 30 seconds.
Enter Current Macro Data
Enter your macro data above to calculate.
What Your MacroScore Means
Macro conditions favor risk assets. Falling rates or dovish signals, weakening dollar, expanding liquidity. Historically aligns with BTC rallies of 50–200%. Consider increasing allocation with defined risk parameters.
Macro headwinds and tailwinds offset. Markets may range-trade or move on idiosyncratic catalysts (halving, ETF flows, protocol upgrades). Maintain baseline allocation. Watch for directional shift.
Rising rates, strong dollar, or contracting liquidity create headwinds. Crypto historically underperforms in these conditions. Reduce position sizing, tighten stop-losses, accumulate stablecoins for future deployment.
Aggressive tightening, surging dollar, liquidity crisis. Risk assets face maximum pressure. Capital preservation priority. Minimal exposure, high cash position, wait for macro regime change before re-entering.
How the MacroScore Works
Crypto markets don't exist in isolation. Bitcoin and altcoins are risk assets that respond to the same macroeconomic forces that move equities, bonds, and commodities — sometimes with amplified sensitivity. This calculator quantifies four key macro drivers into a single actionable score.
Interest Rates (Weight: 30%)
The Federal Funds Rate sets the cost of money. When rates rise, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin increases. Capital flows toward risk-free Treasuries. When rates fall or stabilize, the relative attractiveness of crypto increases. The calculator measures both the absolute level and the 90-day directional change. A rate held steady at 5.33% is different from a rate that dropped from 5.50% to 5.33% — the direction signals the Fed's stance.
US Dollar Index / DXY (Weight: 25%)
DXY measures dollar strength against a basket of major currencies. A strong dollar tightens global financial conditions — dollar-denominated debt becomes more expensive, emerging markets face capital flight, and crypto (priced in USD) faces selling pressure. A weakening dollar has the opposite effect: global liquidity loosens, and risk assets including crypto benefit. Historically, Bitcoin's strongest rallies coincide with DXY declining or plateauing after a peak.
Global Liquidity / M2 (Weight: 35%)
Liquidity is the master variable. When central banks expand the money supply, excess capital must find a home — and crypto is one of the most reflexive beneficiaries. M2 growth rate is the strongest single predictor of crypto market direction across multi-month timeframes. During 2020–2021, global M2 expanded ~25% while BTC rallied from $7K to $69K. During 2022's contraction, BTC fell to $15.5K. The M2-to-Bitcoin correlation coefficient exceeds 0.85 on a 90-day lag.
BTC Dominance (Weight: 10%, Optional)
Bitcoin dominance reflects capital allocation within crypto. Rising dominance suggests a "flight to quality" — capital rotating from altcoins into Bitcoin, often a late-cycle or risk-off signal within crypto. Declining dominance during a bull market suggests altcoin season and increased risk appetite. This is an intra-crypto signal, weighted lower than macro variables.
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